When you think about the economic slowdown and the subject of the United States, one might think of the naked emperor of yore, who could not realize his condition until told to a child. At the time of analysts and the White House recognizes the magnitude of the credit crisis, its effects will probably not be noticeable. Where are we now? On several occasions since last August for signs of an imminent drop in growth, the markets have rallied due to speculation that problems in the sub-prime mortgages have “bottomed out”. Unfortunately, so far seems to have been in vain.

On April 25, Reuters and the University of Michigan reported in its survey of consumers that consumers increasingly deep fell in April to settle in at 62.6 from 69.5 the previous month. Not only is this the third month in which the perspectives of consumers have remained downbeat, but this month are the lowest ratings in 26 years. The last time consumers will be funded as noted in 1982 that was due to “stagflationary” economy of time. Stagflation refers to a stagnating economy with low or limited growth prospects coupled with high inflation. The recent recession has a different set of circumstances, but consumers are feeling the pinch all the same. While inflation remains a key factor in the formulation of monetary policy and politicians, the estimates of underlying inflation (which excludes volatile energy prices and food) remains low for now.

This is a good thing, because it has allowed the Fed a lot of leeway with regard to monetary policy. Have reduced the interest rate charged on loans to commercial banks by nearly three percentage points since the start of the credit crunch last summer, and are prepared to cut rates another 25 basis points at its next reunion rate fixing April 30. However, interest rate futures contracts also predict a 20% chance that they can not cut off the pace throughout, indicating a possible end to further monetary stimulus. No está claro si se refiere a la inflación o la estabilidad macroeconómica es orientar las decisiones de la Fed, ya que, desde la reducción del tipo comenzó, los alimentos y los precios de la energía también se han disparado.

While this is unlikely to affect core inflation to a significant degree, over a long period of time prices will rise for everyone. Moreover, the stimulus package the Treasury is about to begin to reach millions of consumers at the end of April, four days ahead of schedule. The Bush administration and other authorities have trumpeted the $ 152 billion in income as a means to increase spending, which accounts for two thirds of the U.S. economy. While consumer spending should begin to pick up something, surveys have shown that many people spend their plan for an investigation of two ways: personal debt relief (which reached epic proportions in 2007), or add to savings. This reflects both the need for a lump sum of money for many Americans is poor, and how much spending has slowed. Spending takes up a backup, the service sector will continue to pain. Promising numbers in manufacturing orders for April also reflect strong fundamentals, although the housing and construction remain depressed may be presumptuous to assume that U.S. is out of the proverbial woods, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel.